The book "Living on the Edge" by Jonathan Burke is due to be
published in November 2013, but excerpts from the book are being
published at the Facebook page. I'll be mirroring them here.
Confirmation bias
‘It is more common
to reject or ignore arguments when we disagree with the conclusion than
when we agree with it. Psychologists have studied and documented this
human tendency, which they refer to as confirmation bias.’[1]
Put
simply, confirmation bias is our natural tendency to look for
information which confirms what we already believe, and ignore or reject
information which disagrees with or conflicts with our beliefs. When
choosing between two sources of information, we tend to place greater
confidence and value in the source which confirms what we already
believe.
The 17th century philosopher Francis Bacon
described this tendency in his book ‘The Advancement and Proficience of
Learning Divine and Human’ (1605), noting that people are more strongly
influenced by information which confirms (or affirms), their beliefs,
than information which contradicts (or negates), them.
‘Besides, even in the absence of that eagerness and want of thought (which we have mentioned), it is the peculiar and perpetual error of the human understanding to be more moved and excited by affirmatives than negatives,
whereas it ought duly and regularly to be imnpartial; nay, in
establishing any true axion the negative instance is the most
powerful.’[2]
This is a dangerous tendency because it
erodes our capacity to think critically, and to examine our own beliefs
for error. One way to help guard against it is to seek out arguments by
those who disagree with our position, reading their criticism and
counter arguments.
Another way is to present our case to
readers who are neutral or even biased against our case, to see how it
withstands criticism by those who can look at it without our personal
bias. This is a key strength of the peer review process.
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[1] Govier, ‘A Practical Study of Argument’, p. 106 (2009).
[2] Bacon, ‘Advancement of Learning’, in Creighton (ed.), ‘Advancement of Learning and Novum Organum’, p. 321 (rev. ed. 1900).
